Americans now have more confidence in Republicans in Congress—rather than President Obama—to set policy in leading the country, according to a report on new polling results from the Gallup organization.
This turnaround in public sentiment—from early 2012 when a slim plurality, 46 percent, wanted Obama to have the upper hand in steering the nation—clearly mirrors voter attitudes that were present in the midterm elections, in which the GOP regained control of the U.S. Senate and padded its majority cushion in the House of Representatives.
Among the Gallup organization’s findings:
- 53 percent want GOP in Congress to have more influence than Obama
- A third expect nation to be better off, while 19 percent say worse off
- Two-thirds of Republicans are optimistic; 44 percent of Democrats fretful
Republicans’ 17-percentage-point edge over Obama in the new polling significantly exceeds what they gained after the 2010 midterm election, Gallup found, when poll respondents favored Republicans by an eight-point margin (49 percent to 41 percent). It also is nearly double the nine-point advantage Republicans had over President Clinton following the 1994 midterm in which the GOP captured the majority of both houses.
Compared to the 2006 midterm election, however, Republicans’ current edge does not come close to the Democrats’ 30-point lead over George W. Bush (61 percent to 31 percent) when Democrats regained majority control of both houses.
“The similarity across all three of these elections is that they resulted in the president’s opposing party acquiring majority control of one, if not two, chambers of Congress,” wrote Lydia Saad of Gallup News Service. “By contrast, a month after the 1998 midterm election in which the Republican majority survived—but only barely, given a decline in their House seat margin—Americans favored Clinton over the Republicans in Congress for leading the nation by a hefty 29-point margin.”
Another factor likely influencing Americans’ post-election preferences for whose leadership should prevail, Saad added, is the president’s job approval rating. Obama in 2014 and 2010, Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994 all had approval ratings under 50 percent—or even below 40 percent—whereas Clinton’s in December 1998 was an enviable 73 percent.
More Say the Country Will Be Better Off
Despite the election results, most Americans are not expecting a major upturn in national conditions as a result of the Republicans’ success at the polls. While more say the country will be better off now than say it will be worse off (34 percent vs. 19 percent), close to half say it won’t make a difference.
Americans’ expectations about the outcome are a bit subdued, Gallup found, compared with 2006, when 48 percent thought the country would be better off as a result of Democrats’ victories in that midterm election. Another 16 percent thought it would be worse off, leaving just 33 percent saying the election would not make a difference.
“The main factor accounting for the difference between 2006 and today could be that the 2006 midterm shifted the balance of power in Washington from unified Republican control to divided control, whereas this year the outcome only strengthened the Republicans’ hand within an already divided government,” Saad wrote.
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