To say Tuesday’s Wisconsin Primary is critical to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s presidential candidacy is a gross understatement.
So far, it looks like there’s a chance he will win the most votes, but it seems unlikely he will win a majority of the popular vote. And with the way the state’s delegates are allocated, winning a super-majority of delegates, which he needs just to stay “on track” for an outright delegate majority ahead of the Republican National Convention later this summer, appears unlikely.
Here is a breakdown of several key numbers that will play a role in Tuesday’s primary election.
122 — That’s how many delegates away from mathematical elimination for the GOP presidential nomination Cruz now stands. If, at any time between now and June 7, Donald Trump or John Kasich—combined—win that many delegates, then Cruz is mathematically eliminated from winning an outright nomination.
72 — That’s the percentage of Wisconsin voters who do not have a college degree. This has been a key area of support for Trump in previous states.
56 — That’s the percentage of Wisconsin Republicans who say they feel “betrayed” by the Republican Party. That is the lowest percentage among states that have voted so far.
42 — That’s the total number of delegates at stake in the Wisconsin Republican Primary on Tuesday.
40.2 — That’s Cruz’ current polling average in Wisconsin, according to Real Clear Politics, which is good enough to win a plurality in much of the state, but could result in the loss of some district delegates.
38 — That’s how many delegates, out of the total of 42 available, Cruz needs to win in order to stay on track for the nomination. At this point, he needs to win 88.9 percent of the remaining delegates to presumably reach 1,237 ahead of the national convention.
36 — That’s the percentage of Wisconsinites who self-identify as “born-again” or “evangelical” Christians, even using the media’s watered down versions of the terms. This is the beginning of a series of states where committed Christians are a minority voting bloc.
33.7 — That’s Donald Trump’s current polling average in Wisconsin, according to RCP. This number has been moving upward in recent days, suggesting the race may be tighter than was thought just a days ago.
22.8 — That was Ben Carson’s polling average in Wisconsin back in January, according to RCP. His support for Trump since dropping out of the race could be a big factor for late-deciding voters.
19.0 — That’s John Kasich’s current polling average in Wisconsin, according to RCP. If the crosstab data is correct, that’s about 10 percentage points of support that could have gone to Cruz in protest of Trump’s campaign.
18 — That’s how many delegates are awarded, winner take all, to the candidate with the most votes statewide. This chunk of the delegate haul will be crucial to Cruz, if he’s going to have a huge night.
8 — That’s how many congressional districts Wisconsin has. Each district receives three delegates, which are awarded in a winner-take-all fashion by the candidate who has the most votes in each district.
1 — That’s how many open primaries with early voting Cruz has won so far. It was in his home state of Texas. Other than that, and neighboring Oklahoma—which had a closed primary—all of the rest of his wins have been in closed caucus states.
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