As expected, a flurry of new polls in the past few days has solidified the ground-level view of the presidential campaigns in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. And while we still await new information out of South Carolina, there’s been a shift in the Democrat presidential polls that is worth a look.
Iowa
In the Hawkeye State, one can only surmise the “birther” attacks by Donald Trump on Ted Cruz have had their intended result, vaulting Trump back into the lead in the three most recent polls. An earlier poll still has Cruz out in front, which results in a 14-day average that is as deadlocked as you can get:
1-t. Ted Cruz 27.00
1-t. Donald Trump 27.00
3. Marco Rubio 13.20
4. Ben Carson 8.60
5. Jeb Bush 4.60
6. Chris Christie 4.00
7. Rand Paul 3.80
8. Mike Huckabee 2.40
9. John Kasich 2.20
10. Carly Fiorina 1.80
11. Rick Santorum 1.20
The real shakeup has happened in the middle tier of the Iowa Caucus race. Rubio has surged nearly three points, as have Chris Christie and Rand Paul. Meanwhile, Ben Carson continues to slowly lose his support, and Carly Fiorina is imploding.
Caucus Turnout
Next week, we should have our first long-range look at the forecast for Caucus Night. In the meantime, there has been a little bit of change in our turnout predictions:
1. Donald Trump 44,000
2. Ted Cruz 41,500
3. Marco Rubio 12,500
4. Rick Santorum 8,000
5. Mike Huckabee 7,000
6. Rand Paul 6,000
7. Jeb Bush 4,500
8. Ben Carson 4,000
9. Chris Christie 3,500
10. Carly Fiorina 2,500
11. John Kasich 1,500
New Hampshire
In the Granite State, the big news is John Kasich’s surge. It’s coming at the right time, and he’s hitting the road pretty hard in the first-in-the-nation primary state. It’s doubtful at this time that he can catch Trump, but a top-three finish would put some extra life in his candidacy:
1. Donald Trump 30.17
2. Marco Rubio 13.17
3. John Kasich 11.17
4. Ted Cruz 10.83
5. Chris Christie 9.50
6. Jeb Bush 8.67
7. Rand Paul 4.00
8. Carly Fiorina 3.83
9. Ben Carson 3.50
10. Rick Santorum 0.83
11. Mike Huckabee 0.67
Trump’s lead in New Hampshire is growing, as is the percentage of his support. Further down, however, both Carson and Fiorina seem to be losing all of their momentum.
South Carolina
In South Carolina, there has been no change in the polling averages:
1. Donald Trump 33.00
2. Ted Cruz 22.00
3. Marco Rubio 12.00
4. Ben Carson 9.50
5. Jeb Bush 8.50
6-t. Rand Paul 3.50
6-t. Chris Christie 3.50
8. Carly Fiorina 3.00
9-t. Mike Huckabee 1.50
9-t. John Kasich 1.50
11. Rick Santorum 0.50
Combined Average
The shuffling of the fields in Iowa and New Hampshire has had a similar effect on the combined polling averages of the GOP field:
1. Donald Trump 29.38
2. Ted Cruz 18.77
3. Marco Rubio 13.00
4. Jeb Bush 7.08
5. Chris Christie 6.46
6. Ben Carson 6.38
7. John Kasich 6.23
8. Rand Paul 3.85
9. Carly Fiorina 2.92
10. Mike Huckabee 1.46
11. Rick Santorum 0.92
National
There have been a couple of new national polls of note. Nothing has changed in terms of the top four, but the lower half of the field has changed considerably:
1. Donald Trump 34.50
2. Ted Cruz 19.00
3. Marco Rubio 11.00
4. Ben Carson 9.00
5. Jeb Bush 4.00
6. Chris Christie 3.00
7-t. Rand Paul 2.50
7-t. Carly Fiorina 2.50
9. John Kasich 2.00
10. Mike Huckabee 1.00
11. Rick Santorum 0.00
Democrats
The narrative that Hillary Clinton was the presumptive Democrat nominee has been dinged in both Iowa and New Hampshire, where Bernie Sanders is beginning to make things interesting. In Iowa, Clinton leads by a fraction of a point, 45.50-45.25, while in New Hampshire, Sanders leads, 48.80-42.60.
In the current national poll, Clinton maintains a lead of nearly 10 points, 48.50-39.00. Martin O’Malley trails far behind the front-runners in the low single digits in both of the early voting states, as well as the national polling average.
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