A post-convention bump is inevitable for any presidential candidate. The conventions, by their very nature, are meant to create energy and excitement, and to attract independent voters.
These bumps in the poll numbers are generally modest—usually no more than a couple points—but Donald Trump’s post-convention bump this week has pundits wondering if there’s something bigger happening. So, let’s look at those numbers.
National Polls
According to the RealClearPolitics average of the latest national polls, in a head-to-head matchup, Trump now leads his Democratic counterpart, Hillary Clinton, by nearly a full point. This is only the second time he has led Clinton—the last time was in late May—but it is also his largest lead.
And it’s growing.
Trump has won five of the last seven polls released, compared to two of the 11 preceding polls. And some of those polls have Trump’s lead outside the margin of error, as well.
When the two other “mid-major” party candidates—Libertarian former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein—are added to the mix, Clinton regains a slim quarter-point lead over Trump. But when polls conducted prior to the GOP convention are taken out, Trump has a 1.7-point lead.
Battlegrounds
The “battleground” states are continuing to slide to Trump’s favor. Here are the RCP averages for each state, how they are trending, and the post-convention averages.
- Florida—hasn’t been polled since July 11, when Donald Trump was leading by 0.3 of a point; his lead was growing.
- Georgia—the newest poll out this week, which is the first in nearly two months, shows Trump’s lead has shrunk a little, from three points to two.
- Iowa—hasn’t been polled since July 15, when Hillary Clinton held a half-point lead that was rapidly dwindling.
- New Hampshire—the newest poll, released after the convention, shows Trump with a nearly 10-point lead, a stunning reversal of the numbers from just one month ago.
- North Carolina—hasn’t been polled since July 11, when Clinton held a two-point lead that was holding steady.
- Ohio—Clinton currently holds a 0.8-point lead that is shrinking; the post-convention average shows the race to win the pivotal Buckeye State is a tie.
- Pennsylvania—hasn’t been polled since July 11, when Clinton held a 3.2-point lead that was shrinking.
- Virginia—hasn’t been polled since July 12, when Clinton held a 5.3-point lead that has been slowly shrinking.
- Wisconsin—has only been polled once in the month of July, when Clinton held a 5.6-point lead that was shrinking.
The keys to keep in mind are that these polls do not reflect voter sentiments after the DNC email leak by WikiLeaks, nor do they reflect anything that has happened at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
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