If you’re a supporter of Donald Trump, Tuesday night’s results in the New York Primary will not be a matter of whether or not he wins, but by how much he wins. If you’re a supporter of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) or Ohio Gov. John Kasich, the same still applies.
New York’s 95 delegates are awarded in a winner-take-all but piecemeal fashion. The statewide winner automatically receives all 14 of the statewide delegates. The remaining 81 are awarded to the winners of the 27 congressional districts—but there are conditions.
Donald Trump currently leads the statewide polling by more than 30 points, so his statewide win is all but assured Tuesday night. But how he will fare in the individual congressional districts is anyone’s guess, which is why how much he wins by will be important.
If Trump wins a district with 50 percent or more of the vote, he wins all three delegates from that district. If he doesn’t, he can still win them all if neither Cruz nor Kasich cross the 20-percent threshold in the district.
If Trump doesn’t get 50 percent in the district and either Cruz or Kasich gets at least 20 percent, Trump gets two delegates, while the other candidate gets one. If no one gets 50 percent and they each get at least 20 percent, they each get one delegate.
Currently, Cruz is polling in third place, but within the margin of error, statewide. But, in several upstate districts, he was certainly drawing much larger crowds than Kasich. He won’t win any districts, but he has the potential to pull Trump below 50 percent in a few of them to prevent a full sweep.
It will be an uphill climb, though. According to the most recent CBS News/YouGov survey of New York GOP voters, only 8 percent said faith was the most important issue in the election. Only 25 percent oppose same-sex “marriage.”
According to the latest poll from Optimus/Political Machination, Trump leads in all 27 congressional districts. But his leads in individual congressional districts are far less solid than his numbers in the statewide polls suggest.
Cruz has a chance to pick up delegates in the Ninth, 10th, and 15th districts. Kasich has opportunities to pick up delegates in the Seventh, Ninth, 10th, 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th, and 27th districts.
If Cruz and Kasich were to pick up all of their potential delegates, that would give them three and 16 delegates each, respectively, giving Trump the remaining 76. Trump needs just 60 delegates to remain “on track” for a delegate majority going into the Republican National Convention in July.
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