It isn’t necessarily Donald Trump’s popularity that is keeping him atop the polls in New Hampshire; it’s the crowded field in the establishment lane that is keeping him there.
In the latest poll published by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a left-of-center pollster, Trump is leading the Granite State by 14 points with fairly steady support compared to the past three months’ polling results. He currently has 29 percent, according to the poll.
However, there are five other candidates in double digits, closely clustered, albeit far behind Trump. Marco Rubio is at 15 percent, Chris Christie and John Kasich are at 11 percent each, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are each at 10 percent.
No other candidate polled higher than 4 percent.
In terms of favorability, Trump actually ranks eighth out of the 11 candidates with just 49 percent of GOP voters seeing him favorably, while 44 percent view him negatively. However, he also has the greatest intensity of support—the measure of how certain voters are in their support for a candidate—at 68 percent.
Cruz sits at 63 percent, while Bush is at 58 percent. Rubio is at 46 percent, followed by Christie at 40 percent, and Kasich at 34 percent.
“Looking at the race just among those who say their mind is totally made up, Trump’s support goes up to 38 percent to 13 for Rubio, 12 for Cruz, 11 for Bush, 9 for Christie, and 7 for Kasich,” the PPP report states. “The establishment split is what’s keeping Trump in such a good position. In a pared down field of the candidates generally viewed as the top three in the overall race Trump would lead Rubio by just two points, 36/34, with Cruz back at 19 percent. Trump trails Rubio 52/40 and Cruz 46/39 in head to head match ups while leading Bush just 46/45. But as long as Rubio and Christie and Kasich and Bush are all in the race, they’re splitting the vote enough to let Trump’s passionate base give him a big lead.”
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