The Electoral College map on Oct. 1 looked all but impossible for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump to tackle.
His Democratic Party counterpart, Hillary Clinton, had a more than 250 electoral vote “head start” in terms of “deep blue” states while Trump was starting out with only about 135. A candidate must win 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Earlier this week, we showed how the tide had turned in Trump’s favor. But just three days later, we can report the GOP may be “plateauing” in several states, but he’s gaining ground in many others—including states that were once considered “locked in” for Clinton.
On Oct. 1, the “battlefield” map was limited to eight states. As of this writing, one could make the argument it has now grown to 13 states, and many of the original battlefield states have become much more likely to vote for Trump.
His leads in Missouri, Utah, and Georgia have grown to where they can’t even be considered legitimate battleground states anymore. He’s continuing to gain steam in 10 states, just in the past three days:
- Arizona: up 0.5 of a point
- Colorado: up 2.3 points
- Maine: up 1 point
- Michigan: up 3.0 points
- New Hampshire: up 5.1 points
- North Carolina: up 2.5 points
- Pennsylvania: up 3.0 points
- New Mexico: up 0.5 of a point
- New Jersey: up 10.0 points (he still trails by several points)
- Utah: up 2.5 points
None of those attempt to factor out the bias created by oversampling. Applying the “Rule of 3” to cover for typical liberal bias (Clinton -3, Trump +3), one begins to see where the potential for a landslide grows—as does the size of the “battlefield” for both campaigns.
An honest analysis of the polling, taking oversampling bias into account, indicates the following states are still tossups:
- Colorado: Polls say it’s tied, Rule of 3 says Trump +6.0
- Maine: Polls say Clinton +3.0, Rule of 3 says Trump +3.0
- Michigan: Polls say it’s tied, Rule of 3 says Trump +6.0
- Pennsylvania: Polls say it’s tied, Rule of 3 says Trump +6.0
- Virginia: Polls say Clinton +4, Rule of 3 says Trump +2.0
- Wisconsin: Polls say Clinton +5.0, Rule of 3 says Trump +1.0
- New Mexico: Polls say Clinton +3.0, Rule of 3 says Trump +3.0
- Oregon: Polls say Clinton +7.0, Rule of 3 says Trump -1.0
Three states that could play a factor haven’t been polled in several weeks. Connecticut and Washington, where the Rule of 3 indicates very close races, haven’t been polled in more than a month, while Hawaii—a state where the Trump Organization employs many people—hasn’t been polled at all this cycle.
Ultimately, though, the polls are meaningless. The only way to ensure the outcome you’re seeking is to take the time to vote.
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