“The Day After Tomorrow” is a movie based on the book The Coming Global Superstorm by Art Bell and Whitely Strieber. The premise of the plot is that warning signs of a potential looming catastrophic climate incident were ignored by the government until it was too late.
The movie deals with the crisis situation and after effects of surviving a realized cataclysmic event. It is an excellent portrayal of the consequences of miscalculation, well worth viewing.
The movie based on the book presents a metaphorical context for the current crisis in Ukraine today.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have been in collusion for over a year planning an invasion of Ukraine while anticipating the West’s reaction. This illegal overt aggression is the first step in building a new economic zone independent of the western capitalist system.
Both countries are in trouble economically. Their currencies are not expandable past their regions as mediums of commerce in world trade. They now understand that command and oligarchical economies cannot compete with western free enterprise. Their government structures are unsustainable in a global, integrated system.
In violating Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia’s and China’s combined strategic objective was to establish a new economic order, self-contained and isolated from the West, in a basic, enlarged Soviet-style system. As ridiculous as this may seem, the idea is to increase the size of the economic system until critical mass is reached, as if a greater number of people and amounts of resources somehow magically produce efficiencies through economy of scale. This is reminiscent of the old joke that when a certain trucking company is losing money per truck, its solution is to buy more trucks.
China in essence has established its own world bank, international monetary fund and SWIFT system. China and Russia have been trying for ten years to establish a currency other than the dollar as a medium of exchange for international trade.
To date, China has failed to denounce the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Xi’s first act after the invasion was to amend their national Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) (their version of SWIFT) to include Russian rubles. This is a decision long in the making in anticipation of western sanctions.
Putin believed that Ukraine would collapse within five days. Before the West would even have a chance to impose serious sanctions, he would be in control of Ukraine with designs of entering into a new economic cold war with the West. Xi, as a behind-the-scenes supporter, would stand by to provide critical, strategic manufactured goods to counter any Western sanctions.
The problem is that both Putin and Xi miscalculated the Ukrainian people’s resolve to defend their freedoms and the West’s unity in condemnation of the invasion. Putin has now painted himself into a Ukrainian corner. He cannot agree to a ceasefire until he gets the upper hand. He cannot achieve that unless he escalates the war. It is very difficult for him to maintain the ruse at home that this is simply a military operation in the east of Ukraine while intensifying the attack of a war that he has stated is not taking place.
President Xi has to be taking all of these facts under counsel of consideration. Sanctions imposed upon China are more devastating to their economy than to Russia’s. Russia can always sell oil on the black market. Even though diminished, it still supplies cash flow. China exports 80% of what it makes. Manufactured goods are much more difficult to sell on the black market, particularly to a scale necessary to support an economy. The invasion of Taiwan now requires a new risk-reward analysis.
It is critical to understand that both China and Russia have come to the conclusion, just like Germany and Italy in 1939, that they cannot maintain totalitarian governments with command economies in a free world. They must change the order.
The apposite question now is, will the United States and Europe hold China accountable to sanctions imposed upon Russia?
The United States is also subject to its own miscalculations. The Biden administration immediately, in 2021, rejoined the Paris Climate Accords, eased pressure on member countries of NATO to meet defense spending goals and dangled EU and NATO membership in front of Ukraine. At the same time, the United States reduced military support for Ukraine. It’s as if the western allies believed Putin would yield to the leadership priorities of western outcomes. There is no scenario, as wrong as his vision may be, wherein Russia could survive economically in such a communal destination. The West has woefully underestimated China’s and Russia’s determination to form an axis of economic power.
Russia and China have been playing advanced chess while the United States and Europe have been playing pedestrian checkers. The West simply responds to the actions of Russia and China without strategically anticipating several moves down the board. It is frankly embarrassing that the Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Sheikh of United Arab Emirates have refused to accept a call from President Biden while accepting a call from President Putin. They are not altruistic. They are leveraging support for their fight against the Houthis in Yemen. Who are they to hold the United States at arm’s length when our country is supplying their arms?
Obviously, the United States did not think through oil sanctions. President Biden refused for over a week to impose sanctions on imported Russian oil until yesterday. He was forced to respond due to the outcry of the citizens of the United States. He now finds himself asking for help from Iran and Venezuela, sworn ideological enemies of the United States, for increased oil production. Much like Japan and Italy were misconstrued as non-threats in 1939, the United States and its partners have miscalculated the intent of Vladimir Putin. He is not insane. He is viciously calculating.
Now that the coming geopolitical superstorm is here, what does the day after tomorrow look like? And what does it mean for the average U.S. citizen?
The best scenario is that Vladimir Putin makes the decision to occupy the eastern oblast of Ukraine and declares victory. Russia and Ukraine, with the support of the west, will enter into reconciliation peace talks to reexamine all political issues. Russia, with the support of China, will then begin to enter into a new economic cold war with the west. This will not solve the problem, but may buy five to ten years’ time. The only lasting solution is for Russia and China to admit that the missing component of their systems to provide sustainability is freedom.
Without freedom, they will fail. Their only chance to survive as totalitarian governments is to change the order and dominate the West physically through economic mandates to include price controls and currency manipulation.
The United States must face the unenviable reality that Putin may miscalculate again and escalate the war, resulting in massive casualties. Putin is likely to threaten the West with cyber warfare before nuclear warfare. He will test Europe’s and the United States’ resolve in the face of serious infrastructure disruptions.
Western allies must get into the game of chess and calculate several moves down the road rather than react piecemeal to Putin’s actions. The oligarchs are not the primary agents of influence over Putin; China is. The West must strategically position itself to confront China if they and Russia continue on the course of an economic cold war.
The United States government should seize the opportunity of unity in the world to demand that Russia and China stand down from their attempts to orchestrate their own great reset of the world order. Leaving China out of the equation is naïve at best, or fatally misguided at worst. Russia and China, left to their own means to establish an isolated economic system in defiance of free enterprise, will allow Iran and North Korea to find new purpose in their missions.
If such an economic axis can eliminate currency as a weapon, and nuclear warfare is not an option because of the deterrence of mutual mass destruction, then cyber-attacks become the dominant weapon of war. That simply plays to the strengths of the enemies of the West.
President Biden yesterday, to his credit, did ask the American people to embrace sacrifice in support of the actions he is taking by Executive Order to defend freedom in Ukraine. We as citizens should applaud and accept his call.
The ravages of war now being inflicted on innocent Ukrainians are pieces in a mosaic representing the greater conflict of two world ideologies. The history, the culture, the governance of humanity has led to this point of volatile combustion sparked by a soulless army, defied by a united people willing to die for freedom.
The greater composite portrayed by the mosaic is the portrait of the battle between good and evil. At the essence of the struggle is the possessed prize and power personified of freedom. Evil fears it. Good nurtures it.
Whatever the next chess move is to defend the American way of life, let us make it together without reserve as a country in full faith committed to the truth …that good will triumph over evil. {eoa}
Marc Nuttle is an attorney based in Norman, Oklahoma, who specializes in international trade, international foreign policy and international political affairs. He is widely recognized for his expertise in forecasting political and economic trends. He represents corporations, business projects and political entities nationally and internationally. Mr. Nuttle is the founder of the New Horizon Council, a forum for the discussion of transcendent government and business principles. He is the author of the Moment of Truth: How Our Government’s Addiction to Spending & Power Will Destroy Everything That Makes America Great. He is also the author of the weekly commentary The Nuttle Report.
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