The vote tomorrow may be the “only poll that matters,” but the polls taken recently may at least offer a glimpse of what is to come.
Here is a summary of the final polls taken in New Hampshire on the eve of the first-in-the-nation primary. There are now just eight hours to go before the first votes are cast in Dixville Notch, Hart’s Location, and Millsfield.
The Polls
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University — 1. Trump 31, 2. Cruz 16, 3. Rubio 15, 4. Kasich 11, 5. Bush 10, 6. Christie 5, 7. Fiorina 4, 8. Carson 3
CNN/WMUR-TV — 1. Trump 33, 2. Cruz 16, 3. Rubio 14, 4. Kasich 11, 5. Bush 17, 6. Fiorina 6, 7. Christie 4, 8. Carson 2
Monmouth University — 1. Trump 30, 2. Kasich 14, 3-t. Bush 13, 3-t. Cruz 13, 5. Rubio 12, 6. Christie 6, 7. Fiorina 5, 8. Carson 4
American Research Group (Tracking) — 1. Trump 30 (down), 2-t. Rubio 16 (down), 2-t. Kasich 16 (down), 4. Cruz 10 (up), 5. Bush 9 (steady), 6. Christie 6 (up), 7. Fiorina 3 (up), 8. Carson 1 (steady)
University of Massachusetts/7 News (Tracking) — 1. Trump 34 (down), 2-t. Cruz 13 (steady), 2-t. Rubio 13 (down), 4-t. Kasich 10 (up), 4-t. Bush 10 (steady), 6. Christie 5 (up), 7. Fiorina 4 (steady), 8. Carson 3 (steady)
RCP Average
The following are the average ranges predicted by the Real Clear Politics averages and the combined margin-of-error for the polls (4.9 points):
1. Trump 36.5 – 26.7%
2. Rubio 19.5 – 9.7%
3. Cruz 17.9 – 8.1%
4. Kasich 17.3 – 7.5%
5. Bush 14.7 – 4.9%
6. Christie 10.1 – 0.3%
7. Fiorina 9.3 – 0.0%
8. Carson 7.5 – 0.0%
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